Climate Risk & Heavy Rainfall: The Rising Tide in Malaysia & Southeast Asia

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Introduction

The shifting weather patterns - some days hotter, some days with heavy rain - are increasingly posing negative impacts on communities and economies worldwide. In Malaysia and across Southeast Asia, a notable trend is the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall during recent months, particularly during the year-end monsoon and Chinese New Year seasons. Global, regional and local climate assessments, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Six Assessment Report, the ASEAN State of Climate Change Report and Malaysia Climate Change Policy 2.0, highlight that the rising temperature and changing weather patterns are becoming the new norm. This article explores the far-reaching impacts of these downpours on property, people, and economic livelihoods, the challenges they pose, and the strategies needed for both climate mitigation and adaptation. It also examines how Malaysia’s response compares to those of its ASEAN neighbors, highlighting best practices and areas for improvement.

Changing Rainfall Patterns in Malaysia

In previous decades, Malaysia typically experienced heavy rainfall during the year-end monsoon season. However, the climate change has worsened in recent months, leading to heavier rainfall almost every day. As of December 2024, global sea surface temperatures reached record highs, with anomalies of 1.29°C above the 20th-century average of approximately 16.1°C. This increase in sea surface temperatures—combined with the effects of La Niña, has enhanced atmospheric moisture and contributed to more intense and unpredictable rainfall across Malaysia and other ASEAN countries.

During the year-end monsoon season of 2024, Malaysia experienced a significantly higher volume of rainfall than usual. On average, the country receives approximately 3,085.5 millimeters (mm) of precipitation annually. In Peninsular Malaysia, the Kerteh Meteorological Station in Terengganu recorded an exceptional 364 mm of rain in a single day on December 9, 2024, far exceeding typical monthly averages. Similarly, in East Malaysia, the Mulu Meteorological Station in Sarawak reported a daily total of 108.2 mm on December 17, 2024.

The situation intensified in late January 2025, coinciding with the Chinese New Year season. During this period, 13 main meteorological stations in Sarawak recorded daily rainfall exceeding 20 mm, surpassing the average monthly totals. Similar heavy rainfall anomalies were reported in Sabah, contributing to widespread flooding across the state. These dramatic shifts, consistent with broader global trends of increasing heatwaves and rainfall (IPCC, 2021; WMO, 2023; NEA, 2024), highlight the growing threats posed by climate change and underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate mitigation and adaptation strategies across Malaysia and Southeast Asia.

Implications for Property and Livelihoods in Malaysia

Flooding in Malaysia has emerged as a major issue with wide-ranging impacts on physical assets, community well-being, and economic stability. In recent years, severe flood events have not only claimed lives and displaced communities but also led to substantial economic losses. For instance, in December 2024, devastating floods in Kelantan and Terengganu resulted in over 30 fatalities and forced tens of thousands of residents to evacuate, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim estimating repair costs at approximately RM1 billion.

Property Damage

Flooding has caused immediate and extensive damage to physical assets and infrastructure. Urban centers are particularly vulnerable, as aging or shallow drainage systems struggle to manage sudden surges and increasing water volume. This often leads to flash floods that damage roads, bridges, and public transport systems.

Residential areas located in low-lying areas face similar risks, as prolonged exposure to flood waters could deteriorate building materials, compromise the structural integrity of homes, and results in the loss of personal belongings, from furniture to electronic appliances. In rural settings, essential community infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals, is also facing a higher risk of frequent flash floods, which would eventually increase the financial burden on local governments for repairs and rebuilding. This is particularly true to less developed states like Sabah, Sarawak, Kelantan and Terrengganu.

People’s Livelihood

In addition to the property damage, frequent flash floods would also disrupt the daily life of citizens, as they require time to rebuild and restore their homes to their original state. Beyond the immediate threat to life and safety, residents who experience repeated flooding often suffer from fatigue, which can ultimately affect their overall well-being.

In states like Kelantan and Terengganu, several days of heavy rainfall have had severe consequences. Families have not only lost their homes but have also been deprived of access to basic amenities such as healthcare, education, and social support networks. The disruption of routine activities and the loss of community spaces exacerbate stress and mental health challenges, further diminishing the overall quality of life. Additionally, the interruption of community functions, such as schools, markets, and local businesses, intensifies the hardship experienced by affected populations.

Economic Livelihood

The effects of flooding extend beyond property and people’s livelihoods. It also provides significant economic implications for industrial sectors. The agriculture and fisheries sectors are among the hardest hit, as frequent rainfall disrupts crop production timelines, while fishermen may be unable to catch fish during the rainy season.

The plantation sector is also vulnerable to flooding. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), heavy rains in December 2024 has contributed to a four-month downturn in palm oil production, with potential decreases by 5% to 8% under normal conditions to as much as 10% to 20% if flooding pesists. The supply chain disruptions caused by flood lead to temporary business closures and reduced market activity, compounding the financial strain on both small enterprises and the broader national economy. The cumulative effect of these disruptions not only increases recovery costs but also creates long-term economic instability, impacting employment, income levels, and overall economic growth.

Challenges in Policy and Approach

Malaysia’s current approach to climate change is heavily focused on climate mitigation instead of adaptation strategies. This policy imbalance is particularly concerning as the country faces increasingly severe and unpredictable extreme weather events, exposing vulnerabilities in infrastructure and community preparedness. The growing unpredictability of climate patterns also undermines the reliability of traditional seasonal forecasts by the meteorological department, further complicating emergency preparedness.

The United Nations Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report (UNEP, 2021) identifies significant shortfalls in climate adaptation measures globally, reinforcing the need for countries to adopt a balanced policy approach that integrates both climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation tools such as carbon offsetting reduce overall climate impact, relying predominantly on mitigation without adequate investment in adaptation measures will ultimately weaken Malaysia’s climate resilience.

Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

In the context of climate policy, climate mitigation refers to efforts aimed at reducing or preventing greenhouse gas emissions through measures such as renewable energy investments, energy efficiency improvements, and carbon offsetting. In contrast, climate adaptation involves adjusting our systems, infrastructure, and practices to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change. Examples of adaptation strategies include improving flood defenses, upgrading drainage systems, and updating land-use planning.

Given the worsening effects of climate change, proactive measures are essential to safeguard property, protect lives, and ensure economic stability. While both climate mitigation and adaptation are necessary, addressing the current gaps in adaptation measures is crucial to enhancing the climate resilience of nations.

Improving Infrastructure

One of the most effective mitigation strategies is to upgrade urban drainage systems. Many cities are now investing in modernized stormwater management networks by incorporating swales, detention basin, retention ponds and wetlands to slow water flow, store and treat runoff. These nature-based solutions channel water more efficiently during heavy rains, reducing the risk of flash floods. Additionally, adopting flood-resistant features in new building construction such as elevated electrical systems, water-resistant materials, and reinforced foundations would reduce future repair costs and enhance overall community resilience. Retrofitting existing building structures could further mitigate damage when floods occur.

Early Warning Systems and Community Preparedness

Robust early warning systems are critical for minimizing the impact of sudden flooding. Although the Malaysian Meteorological Department has enhanced its forecasting tools and communication channels to alert residents in advance of potential flooding events, timely warnings with clear evacuation procedures are essential to reduce property damage and human casualties. Local governments are also encouraged to develop community-based disaster response plans, including regular training in emergency preparedness, first aid, and evacuation protocols. The establishment of well-equipped evacuation centers and effective communication channels further strengthens public safety during extreme weather events.

Financial Instruments and Insurance

As floods emerge as one of the climate risks likely to occur persistently, financial strategies such as flood insurance play an important role in recovery efforts. Encouraging households and businesses to secure appropriate insurance would alleviate the economic burden of flood damage. In addition, government-backed financial assistance, including low-interest loans and grants for rebuilding efforts, could provide a crucial social safety net for affected communities.

Policy and Land-Use Planning

At the policy level, integrating climate risk assessments into township planning is essential. Authorities must identify high-risk zones, such as low-lying floodplains, and enforce zoning laws that restrict construction in these vulnerable areas. Investments in green infrastructure, including urban parks and permeable pavements, would absorb excess water, reduce flood risks, and enhance the overall urban environment.

Benchmarking Across Southeast Asia

While Malaysia is at the forefront of these challenges, its ASEAN neighbors face similar issues, which are expected to worsen by 2100, as projected by various ministries across the region (see table below). For this article, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are selected for comparison with Malaysia.

Table 1: Projected Climate Change in the ASEAN Region

Country	Observed	ㅤ	ㅤ	Projections until 2100	ㅤ	ㅤ
ㅤ	Temperature	Precipitation	Observed extreme events	Temperature	Precipitation	Projected extreme events
Malaysia	0.13–0.24 °C per decade since 1969	Unclear long- term trend	Increase in rainfall intensity	1.2–1.6 °C (SRES) by 2050	7.1% to 10.6% increase by 2050	Frequent extreme dry spells, extreme rainfall events, extreme floods in specific river basins
Indonesia	0.01–0.06 °C per year since 1950	-2–3% since 1990	Extreme rainfall events, increase in floods, storms, and droughts	Increase by 0.75 °C (RCP2.6) and 2.7°C (RCP8.5)	10–30% in Sumatra, Borneo by 2080	Increase in ENSO episodes, coastal flooding, wildfires
Thailand	1.04 °C during 1970–2009	64.8 mm in East-Coast Gulf	Increase in hot days, extreme flood events	0.9–1.8 °C (RCP2.6), 2.0–3.1 (RCP8.5)	(-)66 to 193 mm (RCP2.6), (-)19 to 191 mm (RCP8.5)	Increase in hot days, increase in high rainfall events
Vietnam	0.62 °C during 1958–2014	2.6% during 1958–2014	Increases in droughts, extreme rainfall events, super typhoons and typhoon period	1.7–2.4 °C (RCP4.5), 3.0–4.0 °C (RCP8.5)	5–15% (RCP4.5), 20% (RCP8.5)	Increase in strong and very strong typhoons, the intensity of droughts, number of hot days
ㅤ	ㅤ	ㅤ	ㅤ	ㅤ	ㅤ	ㅤ

Indonesia

Indonesia is experiencing more frequent extreme rainfall events, leading to increased floods, storms and droughts. A Reuters report predicts that, despite the influence of a weak La Niña pattern, most of Indonesia will experience a normal wet season in 2025. However, even “normal” rainfall could pose significant risks, particularly in underdeveloped urban areas in regions such as Sumatra and Kalimantan. Inadequate infrastructure leaves communities vulnerable to recurring floods, landslides, and subsequent crop damage. This highlights the urgent need for Indonesia to strengthen flood management systems and improve community preparedness.

Thailand

In Thailand, recent reports indicate that while La Niña conditions have arrived less intensely than expected, they have still brought cooler, wetter weather to some regions. Although urban centers like Bangkok may be better equipped to handle extreme weather events, rural areas continue to face challenges such as flash floods and landslides. This underscores the importance for Thailand to introduce integrated flood forecasting and disaster management systems.

Vietnam

Vietnam is also facing disruption in weather patterns, including more frequent droughts, extreme rainfall events and super typhoons. Although northern Vietnam typically has a drier January, climate change has introduced greater variability, with some years witnessing unexpected heavy rains. These changes not only impact agriculture but also pose significant risks to urban infrastructure and public health.

Looking Ahead: Building Resilience in a Changing Climate

The increasing frequency of heavy rainfall in recent months is a clear indication that climate change is a reality nowadays. As extreme weather events become more frequent, nations face rising cost of inaction —both economically and in terms of human lives. The Asian Development Bank (ADB, 2020) states that failing to invest in flood-resilient infrastructure and comprehensive disaster management not only increases recovery costs but also jeopardizes long-term economic stability.

To develop a climate-resilient society, all ASEAN countries require to integrate both climate adaptation and mitigation strategies into urban planning, infrastructure development, and community preparedness. The governments and companies must focus on real carbon reduction strategies, not just carbon offsets. Collaboration among government agencies, private enterprises, and local communities is essential to build robust systems that can withstand the increasing risks posed by climate change.

Conclusion

Frequent and intense rainfall that trigger severe floods in recent months represents a growing climate risk for Malaysia and the broader Southeast Asian region. These events not only results in greater damages to property, infrastructure and corps, but they also leave residents living in low–lying areas increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events. This highlights the urgent need for ASEAN to place greater emphasis on climate adaptation, alongside mitigation strategies, to effectively address the rapidly changing climate. Improved infrastructure, robust early warning systems, comprehensive financial instruments, and integrated land-use planning are essential climate adaptation measures needed to reduce future economic losses and build long-term climate resilience.

References

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Climate Risk and the Rising Tide: How Frequent Rainfall is Reshaping Malaysia and Southeast Asia